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Rainy Early Week Ahead of Frost/Freeze Risk

A cold front came through Sunday morning, which opened the door for a reinforcing shot of chilly air and lake effect rain showers. An upper-level trough will remain over the top of the Great Lakes through Wednesday, which will keep temperatures running below normal. In fact, highs will stay in the 50s, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thanks to cloud cover, overnight lows won’t drop down too much, but that changes once skies begin to clear out on Wednesday into Wednesday night. On top of the chilly air over the next couple of days, winds will also be blowing between 10 and 20 MPH today and tomorrow with gusts up to 25-30 MPH at times. With these winds coming from the northwest and west, the incoming cold air rushing over the lakes is enough to generate lake effect rain showers. If it was late October or November, we would certainly be seeing lake effect snow showers out of this, but at this point, it’s too early in the season and we’re not cold enough for snow yet, so we’ll stick to dreary and wet conditions with rain. Here is a look at forecast rainfall through Wednesday morning. Notice the higher totals closer to Lake Michigan because of lake effect:

Wednesday night, the trough shifts east, which allows Canadian High Pressure to move in over the top of us Thursday morning. Setups like this often bring clear skies and light winds, which is a combination favorable for dropping temperatures and I believe we will experience just that. This past Friday morning, Clare was under a Frost Advisory and low temperatures dropped into the middle and upper-30s in the local central MI area. This week, Thursday morning will likely be the coldest and it looks colder than this past Friday. Lower-30s could be on the table with perhaps some upper-20s trying to sneak in, particularly in Clare County. Temperatures of this magnitude would result in frost being likely along with a possible Freeze. Friday morning doesn’t look quite as cold, but still in the middle to upper-30s. Higher heights should allow high temperatures to warm into the 60s by this weekend, but there is something interesting brewing in the Gulf of Mexico that could influence the weather pattern by then. Here is a look at widespread low temperatures in the 30s Friday morning:

Gulf of Mexico Hurricane This Week?

It has been a quiet Hurricane season so far, but it has ramped up somewhat recently and it only takes one storm to cause major impacts. As of Sunday morning, Tropical Storm Ian is centered in the western Caribbean Sea southwest of Jamaica. Ian has maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH and is moving west-northwest at 12MPH. There are Hurricane Warnings in place for the Cayman Islands and Hurricane Watches for far western Cuba. By Monday, the official National Hurricane Center forecast has Ian strengthening into a Hurricane. By Monday night and Tuesday morning, a major Hurricane is forecast to be over western Cuba with maximum sustained winds over 110 MPH, so based on this forecast, Hurricane Warnings will probably be needed for western Cuba. The track of Hurricane Ian is not yet clear as it advances north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and towards the southeastern United States. One thing to note is that the Gulf water temperatures are very warm; up around 30 degrees Celsius or so, which is a favorable environment for Hurricanes to strengthen. At this point, it seems likely that a Category 4 storm will occur, with possible rapid intensification in the warm waters. Landfall is also likely on Thursday or early Friday somewhere along the Florida coast. While the center of the storms’ mean forecast track currently takes it up towards Tallahassee, the cone of uncertainty ranges from Gulf Shores, AL all the way down to Fort Myers, FL. Even outside of this cone, hazardous conditions can occur, since this cone features the possible track of the eye of the Hurricane, rather than the area of possible dangerous impacts. Everyone inside and near the cone should pay close attention to the forecast and prepare for possible Hurricane impacts later this week. As of 8AM Sunday, here is the latest forecast for Hurricane Ian from the National Hurricane Center:

After landfall late this week, Hurricane Ian will advance northward across the eastern U.S. before eventually getting picked up the Jetstream and forced east into the northern Atlantic. Depending on the timing of upper-level features, our weather pattern here in mid-Michigan could be impacted somewhat by this storm, so we’ll keep an eye on this throughout the week.

Mt. Pleasant Almanac for This Week:

Almanac Information is a way to look at normal and record high and low temperatures for this time of year. The normal temperatures are based on the 30-year average high and low for that date between 1991 and 2020. For example, if you take the high temperature for every September 26th between 1991 and 2020 and calculate the average of all 30 values, the result would be 70. Therefore, the normal high for today is 70°. Record high and low temperature data goes back to 1895. Sunrise and sunset data is also provided. All information is valid for Mount Pleasant.

September 26th

Normal High/Low: 70°/47°

Record High: 93° 2017

Record Low: 28° 1926

Sunrise: 7:31AM

Sunset: 7:29PM

September 27th

Normal High/Low: 69°/47°

Record High: 93° 2017

Record Low: 28° 1989

Sunrise: 7:32AM

Sunset: 7:27PM

September 28th

Normal High/Low: 69°/47°

Record High: 93° 1901

Record Low: 28° 1942

Sunrise: 7:33AM

Sunset: 7:25PM

September 29th

Normal High/Low: 68°/46°

Record High: 86° 1921

Record Low: 28° 1949

Sunrise: 7:34AM

Sunset: 7:24PM

September 30th

Normal High/Low: 68°/46°

Record High: 87° 1897

Record Low: 29° 1945

Sunrise: 7:36AM

Sunset: 7:22PM

October 1st

Normal High/Low: 67°/46°

Record High: 86° 1971

Record Low: 25° 1907

Sunrise: 7:37AM

Sunset: 7:20PM

October 2nd

Normal High/Low: 67°/45°

Record High: 87° 1971

Record Low: 22° 1974

Sunrise: 7:38AM

Sunset: 7:18PM

Mid-Mitten Weather View’s Mission is to serve people by providing timely information to help keep you safe and make decisions based on the weather. We are passionate about educating both our forecasters and our followers about how weather forecasting works and how we can be best prepared when impactful weather threatens. Our team consists of both CMU alumni degreed meteorologists and current student forecasters from the University. For daily updates, we welcome you to check out our Facebook Page! We look forward to catching you back here next week for another weekly 7-Day forecast update.

-Weather Forecast by CMU Student Forecaster Isaac Cleland

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