If I had to summarize the weather this upcoming week in one sentence, I’d say it’s comfortable, pleasant, and mainly dry. At first glance through the graphic, you’ll notice highs are mainly in the 80s all week and lows are in the 50s and 60s, with the only shower and thunderstorm chance being today and tonight. Take a look and then we’ll discuss the risks ahead:
Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms are possible today into tonight. There is a low-end risk for an isolated strong to severe storm, but most storms won’t be severe. It’s also still not likely that everyone will see the rain that is needed. We are running drier than normal across central MI, with Gratiot County currently experiencing the worst of it, which is why the drought monitor has them in a moderate drought. Unless we get soaked by a thunderstorm tonight, busting the drought this week is not likely. There are small risks that could make rain a slight possibility on some days despite the 7-Day showing 0% at this time, but these won’t amount to much or be anything more than a slight inconvenience at worst.
Here is what I mean by that. We have some cold air moving in aloft (a few thousand feet above the ground) on Wednesday. Dry air and a comfortable air-mass favors sunny skies by day and clear skies by night, but with a stronger temperature drop than normal with height, we develop some instability in the atmosphere. For perspective, it could warm well into the 70s to near 80 on Wednesday, but just one mile above the ground, it could be 50°. That is a drastic temperature drop with height. As a result, a sunny morning can give way to cloud development in the afternoon, simply because the sun is heating things up. If it can build up just enough, it can lead to an isolated light shower developing, although it is not likely and most locations stay dry. But it is a risk and not at all surprising if a brief light rain shower or drizzle does occur. It would have little to no impact to outdoor plans unless you have something that has 100% zero tolerance to 5 minutes of drizzle. If that is the case for your outdoor operations, it is worth keeping in the back of your mind and checking back throughout the week for these minor details within the forecast, but otherwise, mainly dry weather is favored, which will keep the drought conditions going.
This weekend, we have a similar situation setting up with a moisture-starved cold front moving through. A few showers may end up being possible, but at this point, given how far away the weekend is and the data currently, any notable rain is the opposite of probable, so have left the forecast dry for now. Absolutely worth monitoring trends throughout the week, though, especially if you have outdoor plans next weekend. There is nothing suggesting anything near a washout and dry weather is clearly favored, but there is a low-end risk to the forecast that a shower may not be impossible. Another thing to note is high temperatures should climb close to 90° next weekend. This may be the start of a hotter week moving in next week as some longer-range ensemble guidance does suggest warmer to possibly hot conditions arriving, allowing us to have multiple 90°+ days during the week 2 period (July 17th-23rd timeframe). I believe this is certainly possible and we’ll discuss in more detail next week should the hot conditions verify and be in the forecast by then.
Mt. Pleasant Almanac for This Week:
Almanac Information is a way to look at normal and record high and low temperatures for this time of year. The normal temperatures are based on the 30-year average high and low for that date between 1991 and 2020. For example, if you take the high temperature for every July 11th between 1991 and 2020 and calculate the average of all 30 values, the result would be 84°. Therefore, the normal high for today is 84°. Record high and low temperature data goes back to 1895. Sunrise and sunset data is also provided. All information is valid for Mount Pleasant.
July 11th:
Normal High/Low: 84°/61°
Record High: 104° 1936
Record Low: 38° 1926
Sunrise: 6:08AM
Sunset: 9:21PM
July 12th:
Normal High/Low: 84°/61°
Record High: 104° 1936
Record Low: 40° 1909
Sunrise: 6:09AM
Sunset: 9:20PM
July 13th:
Normal High/Low: 84°/61°
Record High: 106° 1936
Record Low: 42° 1926
Sunrise: 6:10AM
Sunset: 9:19PM
July 14th:
Normal High/Low: 84°/61°
Record High: 100° 1936
Record Low: 40° 1901
Sunrise: 6:11AM
Sunset: 9:19PM
July 15th:
Normal High/Low: 84°/61°
Record High: 100° 1995
Record Low: 45° 1926
Sunrise: 6:12AM
Sunset: 9:18PM
July 16th:
Normal High/Low: 84°/61°
Record High: 97° 2006
Record Low: 42° 1912
Sunrise: 6:13AM
Sunset: 9:17PM
July 17th:
Normal High/Low: 84°/61°
Record High: 101° 1931
Record Low: 40° 1920
Sunrise: 6:14AM
Sunset: 9:17PM
July 18th:
Normal High/Low: 84°/61°
Record High: 100° 2012
Record Low: 39° 1924
Sunrise: 6:14AM
Sunset: 9:16PM
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-Weather Forecast by CMU Student Forecaster Isaac Cleland
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