The weather pattern is certainly tricky heading into the upcoming week and into mid-December. If you read our article last week, we mentioned that there may be some accumulating snow during the first half of this week with colder than normal temperatures lurking into the middle of the month. Interestingly, we have two different air-masses battling each other over the mid-latitudes which is making it complicated to determine whether the warm or cold will ultimately win out. The atmosphere fits together across the globe so everything happening throughout the entire earth is having an influence on the global and local weather patterns in some way. The computer models are struggling with the current pattern we are facing because global signals are conflicting, which is, again, resulting a battle of air-masses. You can see what I am talking about by looking at the temperature forecast map below for this Friday. The pink line represents 600 miles and notice temperatures range from the 50s and 60s in IN, OH, and KY to sub-zero north of Lake Superior.
For the time being, this back and forth battle prevents us from seeing any major warmth or cold this week, which means we end up close to normal with highs mainly 35 to 40. Last weekend, it looked like this week could have been quite a bit colder with highs more in the 25 to 30 degree range with opportunities to re-enforce the presence of cold air and keep it going into mid-month. I still think there may be an opportunity during the 3rd week of December to tap into that cold air in Canada, so there is still potential to get cold, but we’re putting that on hold for now. I also believe that because of the cold air in Canada, we are preventing the warm air in the southeastern U.S. from expanding into the Great Lakes, so that means we aren’t really going to see any major warmth in the 40s and 50s, but it won’t be bitter cold either. We’re choosing a happy medium, fairly close to normal for early December.
Notice the trends in the model data here from the GEFS. This is what it showed on its forecast generated on November 29th for the December 9th to 14th timeframe. Notice the blue indicating cold, below normal temperatures:
As we roll the forecast forward, though, here is what the same model now shows 5 days later as of December 4th, for the same timeframe between the 9th and 14th. A much warmer look indeed. This shows models are struggling with the extended range forecast and trending much warmer as the dates become closer:
With this being the case, we do run the risk that colder forecasts into the 3rd week of December could also be incorrect and data will trend warmer as the timeframe becomes closer. That being said, there are global weather patterns that I won’t go into detail on now that do support an eventual full pattern change to colder than normal temperatures, but the question is the timing. When exactly do these colder temperatures arrive? This is what we will continue to investigate and keep you updated in our weekly articles right here on the morning sun.
Rain and Snow Chances this week:
Given that we are in between the warm and cold air this week, though, that does open up the door for perhaps 2 Low Pressure systems to track through or near the area. The early week one looks weak, but a Thursday/Friday system later this week may be a little stronger. Rain and snow chances are on the low end to begin this week and there is enough uncertainty about later this week that chances aren’t all that high either for now, but I think we should watch Thursday into Friday. There may be a decent round of rain and snow, which may result in several inches of snow accumulation by the end of this week if we end up in the right spot. For daily updates, please follow our Facebook page @ Mid-Mitten Weather View.
Mt. Pleasant Almanac for This Week:
Almanac Information is a way to look at normal and record high and low temperatures for this time of year. The normal temperatures are based on the 30-year average high and low for that date between 1991 and 2020. For example, if you take the high temperature for every December 5th between 1991 and 2020 and calculate the average of all 30 values, the result would be 38. Therefore, the normal high for today is 38°. Record high and low temperature data goes back to 1895. Sunrise and sunset data is also provided. All information is valid for Mount Pleasant.
December 5th
Normal High/Low: 38°/25°
Record High: 58° 2017
Record Low: 3° 1901
Sunrise: 7:57AM
Sunset: 5:03PM
December 6th
Normal High/Low: 37°/25°
Record High: 69° 2001
Record Low: -8° 1926
Sunrise: 7:58AM
Sunset: 5:02PM
December 7th
Normal High/Low: 37°/25°
Record High: 61° 1998
Record Low: -3° 1936
Sunrise: 7:59AM
Sunset: 5:02PM
December 8th
Normal High/Low: 37°/24°
Record High: 59° 1966
Record Low: 0° 1942
Sunrise: 8:00AM
Sunset: 5:02PM
December 9th
Normal High/Low: 37°/24°
Record High: 57° 1966
Record Low: -1° 1917
Sunrise: 8:01AM
Sunset: 5:02PM
December 10th
Normal High/Low: 36°/24°
Record High: 58° 1971
Record Low: 1° 1995
Sunrise: 8:01AM
Sunset: 5:02PM
December 11th
Normal High/Low: 36°/24°
Record High: 60° 1971
Record Low: -1° 1919
Sunrise: 8:02AM
Sunset: 5:02PM
Mid-Mitten Weather View’s Mission is to serve people by providing timely information to help keep you safe and make decisions based on the weather. We are passionate about educating both our forecasters and our followers about how weather forecasting works and how we can be best prepared when impactful weather threatens. Our team consists of both CMU alumni degreed meteorologists and current student forecasters from the University. For daily updates, we welcome you to check out our Facebook Page! We look forward to catching you back here next week for another weekly 7-Day forecast update.
-Weather Forecast by CMU Student Forecaster Isaac Cleland
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