Warmth Ends Abruptly Late This Week
After a windy weekend, we’ll calm down to start off the work week, but it turns active again by the end of the week and turns much colder by this upcoming weekend. Today and Tuesday will be dominated by Canadian High Pressure, which means abundant sunshine and highs actually about spot on normal for November 7th and 8th near 50°. Tonight into Tuesday morning will be clear, so lows will drop into the upper-20s to near 30. These freezing conditions will likely result in a thick frost that will require time to scrape your windshield and warm up your car in the morning if you park outside, so be prepared for that ahead of your Tuesday morning commute. Other than the cold, no weather-related issues are expected for election day. You will notice an earlier sunrise compared to last week as well, which will be at 7:24am on Tuesday morning, since clocks fell back an hour early yesterday morning.
Warmer air moves back in for mid-week, mainly Wednesday and especially on Thursday. The ridging pattern that has given us a warm fall so far continues to hold its grip for most of this week, and we’ll feel the effects of it for sure. We will likely see a few more clouds around on Wednesday and Thursday as westerly upper-level winds start to bring in some higher clouds, but the low levels remain dry thanks to the high pressure system remaining close enough to the area, albeit drifting east. Therefore, the forecast remains rain free and we simply call it Partly Sunny Wednesday and Thursday. Now, remember the strong winds we had this past Saturday? That was due to a strong Low Pressure system that moved through the Upper Great Lakes. We’ll see another Low Pressure system form – a Colorado Low – and advance again into the upper Great Lakes by Friday. The winds don’t look quite as strong as they were this past weekend, so that is the good news, but it will still bring strong winds late this week. Wednesday and Thursday, these winds will be coming from the south, so that means we see highs in the lower-60s on Wednesday, and we have a shot at 70° once again on Thursday. It is fun to note, the record high temperature for November 10th (this Thursday) is 75°, which occurred just 2 years ago in 2020, so we may not be too far away from it.
There will be another cold front associated with this Low Pressure system. The exact timing is not set in stone, but it looks to come through on Friday. Showers will be possible along this cold front on Friday. Due to the uncertainty in the exact timing, the high temperature on Friday may need to be adjusted, but for now, I think we can still make it to near 60 assuming the cold front comes through during the afternoon. Now, unlike the cold front this past weekend, this one will be much stronger and introduce a pattern change to much colder temperatures. This very well could be the coldest air of the season yet, with high temperatures in the 30s this coming Saturday and Sunday and overnight lows in the 20s, resulting in multiple hard freezes. Along with the cold air comes exactly what we would expect in mid-November. Given that the Great Lakes are still warm, cold air of this magnitude is perfect for waking up the lake effect snow machine. The wind direction will be key to determine the timing, who exactly might see lake effect snow, and if there will be any accumulations. Given the synoptic setup, I believe lake effect snow will occur, but the specifics on locations is not certain this far out. In addition, with the cold air overhead being -10° C 0.7 miles aloft, any sunshine that can sneak through the clouds would make things unstable. This means if the sun comes out, this would increase our chances of seeing a rain and snow mixture develop during the afternoons of Saturday and Sunday. Graupel could mix in as well. Here is a look at the forecast over the next 7 days:
Peak Wind Gusts Observed Saturday:
The top 12 observed wind gusts across central and southern lower MI were all greater than 40 MPH on Saturday. Locally across Clare, Isabella, and Gratiot counties, the strongest wind gusts came in on the lower end between 40 and 45 MPH. Elsewhere though, 50-60+ MPH gusts were observed, which resulted in power outages and tree damage. The Low Pressure system responsible for these strong wind gusts deepened below 990mb, which is a strong storm system. Wind Advisories were in effect across the entire lower Peninsula to account for widespread 45-55 MPH winds gusts, while also noting that a few gusts near or exceeding 60 MPH would be possible…and that is exactly what happened. Here is a summary of the strongest wind gusts:
Total Lunar Eclipse Tuesday Morning:
During the morning of Tuesday, November 8th, the moon's trajectory will line up perfectly with the Earth's inner shadow, more commonly referred to as its Umbra. This will generate a total lunar eclipse to begin election day, where the moon will seemingly disappear, before turning red in the night sky. The last time we saw an eclipse in central Michigan was May 15th, where the moon turned a deep red in the late-night sky. Tuesday, we get to see a little something just like that.
The visible part of the eclipse begins bright and early at 4:09am, and we expect the bright red moon to appear around 5:16am, which is when totality begins. This phase of the eclipse will last over an hour, until the moon begins to exit the umbra once more at 6:41am. The moon won’t return to it’s normal full moon appearance until 7:49am, but by then, it will have set below the western horizon, given that sunrise is at 7:24am. The forecast looks good right now, with Mostly Clear skies expected, but it will be a cold morning with temperatures near or below freezing. If you’re an early bird, it will be a great morning to watch from your west facing window, or throw on your winter jacket and head outside to look west. This will definitely be a must see, as this will be the last total lunar eclipse until 2025.
Mt. Pleasant Almanac for This Week:
Almanac Information is a way to look at normal and record high and low temperatures for this time of year. The normal temperatures are based on the 30-year average high and low for that date between 1991 and 2020. For example, if you take the high temperature for every November 7th between 1991 and 2020 and calculate the average of all 30 values, the result would be 50. Therefore, the normal high for today is 50°. Record high and low temperature data goes back to 1895. Sunrise and sunset data is also provided. All information is valid for Mount Pleasant.
Normal High/Low: 50°/34°
Record High: 73° 1975/2020
Record Low: 16° 1991
Normal High/Low: 49°/33°
Record High: 74° 2020
Record Low: 15° 1991
Normal High/Low: 49°/33°
Record High: 77° 2020
Record Low: 11° 1925
Normal High/Low: 48°/33°
Record High: 75° 2020
Record Low: 10° 1925
Normal High/Low: 48°/32°
Record High: 75° 1911
Record Low: 6° 1926
Normal High/Low: 47°/32°
Record High: 70° 1911
Record Low: 12° 2019
Normal High/Low: 47°/32°
Record High: 68° 1909
Record Low: 11° 2019
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-Weather Forecast by CMU Student Forecasters Isaac Cleland, Scott Thomas, and Collin Lucas